NKU can beat Wright State by doing these 3 things really really really really well
Here's how it has to happen.
Well, it’s finally here. We’ve been building to this moment since the beginning of the season. NKU, with a very young team, scheduled to end their season against Louden Love, Scott Nagy and the Wright State Raiders. Yes, Wright State. The bane of every NKU fan’s existence. The odds-on favorite to win the Horizon League, and by alot. I think many people expected NKU to be around the middle of the league this season, but today we sit 4th at 10-6. Nobody expected anything less than for Wright State to be at the top of the league, and as surprising as Cleveland State’s season has been, Wright State is presumably one NKU-sweep away from championing the 1-seed and accomplishing their first major milestone of the 2020-21 season. But will it be that easy? Well…. probably. Wright State has been utterly dominant this season, losing just three games in conference play, two of those on buzzer beater shots by the other team. The Raiders are at or near the top in just about every statistical category, and they are crushing teams under their heels when they win Horizon League games - with an average margin of over +20 in their wins. But there is a formula to beat this team, one which NKU can activate this weekend. I do see a game script in which NKU imposes their will on the Raiders and wins a game, without counting on WSU to make mistakes or players to get hurt, which you never want to count on. Don’t believe me? Let’s talk about it.
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RECAP: NKU splits the weekend with Green Bay
Hey, turns out NKU and Green Bay were pretty evenly matched! Who knew.
Rule #1: Slooooowwwww the game dooooowwwnnnn
Okay - so when you’re going through Wright State’s game logs, their 3 conference losses also happen to be 3 of their lowest scoring games of the season. They scored 64 against Cleveland State, 71 against Oakland and 72 against Youngstown State - all losses. They’ve won a few low scoring games, but primarily they are the type of team that WANTS TO RUN AND GUN. They average over 83 points per game in conference play, and they do it both by being efficient on offense, and quick in transition.
To beat this team, NKU will need to limit the number of possessions in the game, run a slower offense, and be very good at stopping the initial break when Wright State does get a defensive rebound and tries to push the pace.
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Power Rankings Update!
Horizon League Player of the Year Watch
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Moore-Junior-Oakland
Naz Bohannon-Senior-Youngstown State
Jared Godfrey-Junior-Purdue Fort Wayne
Adrian Nelson-Junior-Northern Kentucky
Grant Basile-Freshman-Wright State
Full articles:
Rule #2: Don’t hyperfocus on Louden Love - but don’t ignore him either
This is where it gets tricky. Everyone wants the easy answer. You’ll hear people say, “We need to let Loudon go off, but stop everyone else.” You’ll also hear, “Maybe we should shut down Loudon Love and make the others beat us!”
No, and no. These are not the answers - at least not in totality. If you let Loudon love go off, that’s exactly what he will do. He is entirely capable of posting a 20 and 20 game and effectively ending any chance you might have had. On that note - even if he doesn’t go off, there’s a young man by the name of Grant Basile who is also a big man for Wright State who can, and will.
But you don’t want to focus on shutting Love down completely either. Wright State has some great guards, including Horizon League POY candidate Tanner Holden, who can all shoot incredibly well from 3. Here’s what NKU really needs from their defense to make sure they are making things difficult on the Raiders:
Guards need to play BIG
Wings need to help inside
Guards and wings need to rotate out and close out the 3 point shooters
Bigs need to stay on the ground and stay out of foul trouble
Our defense is most effective when our guards get into the other guards and make them feel uncomfortable, both in the passing lanes and when they have the ball in their hands. When this happens, it tends to expose the middle of the court, or the paint. This is where our wings (Eleeda, Trey Robinson, Trevon Faulkner, etc) need to be BIG. They need to have their hands out, be active in the passing lanes, and effectively “cat and mouse” the guards and force them to make a bad decision. When the ball inevitably does find it’s way inside, we need to get it out of the paint, whether it’s by running a token double team at the man with the ball, or just playing good man-to-man defense, we need to get them to rotate it back out. Once it’s rotated back out, our wings and guards MUST effectively close out on the shooters. This does not mean flying out at them with reckless abandon, it means keeping a mobile/active center of gravity and closing out with their hands up to effectively protect against a drive, while also making a 3-pointer more difficult. And finally, Adrian Nelson will be the most important player the Norse have. It’s inevitable that Love and Basile will get the ball in a position to score. If this happens, do the best you can to stand your ground. Go straight up, do not try to be a hero. The last thing we need is Adrian on the bench with 12 minutes to go in the first half because he tried to block Loudon Love twice and fell for pump fakes, fouling him.
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On the Horizon: News around the league
What was being talked about on the Horizon this week?
League/team updates
Standings
No fans at the tournament
Tweet of the Week
Kudos to him for having the absolute balls to pull this off in a loss!
Team/League Updates:
Cleveland State Vikings | Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | Wright State Raiders
Horizon League Weekend Recap | Horizon League WBB Power Rankings by John Parker
Billy Wampler (Wright State) joins the HRT guys on the podcast
Rule #3: Slow, but efficient offense
Going back to rule #1, we need to slow the game down. We have no direct control of how quickly or how slowly Wright State tries to play on offense, though the steps above outline some things we can do to frustrate them and slow them down potentially. But the offensive side of the ball is where we can control the tempo of the game, at least in the sense that we can slow it down.
The Norse get themselves into a lot of trouble this season when they choose to shoot early and often, and from deep. This cannot be the strategy in this game. One advantage the Norse have is that they have 2 or 3 players who are really good in isolated (ISO) situations. Trevon Faulkner, Marques Warrick, and even David Bohm come to mind specifically. I am not suggesting that the Norse need to only run ISO, no team, especially at this level can be successful doing that. But I will not be surprised at all to see the Norse deliberately run various sets to isolate these three, and possibly others in an effort to get them in a favorable 1:1 situation that leads to a basket. It’s what we’ve done best this season.
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Recruiting News
The season is hard enough to keep up with, but here’s some quick recruiting updates as we continue to keep an eye on the future:
Sam Vinson (NKU Commit)
Zay Mason (NKU Commit)
Pat Baldwin Jr (5-star recruit, considering Milwaukee)
NKU WBB COMMITS MAKING SOME NOISE
Nobody is predicting a win, but it’s not impossible
It’s going to be tough. I’ll be honest, this is probably the most “outmatched” NKU has been in a conference game in 4 or 5 years. Everything we do well plays into a strength of Wright State - and there’s not really any glaring weakness Wright State has that we can expose. It’s going to be a very tough weekend, a win will not come easy. All of this leads to a 9.5 underdog spread in Vegas, and an ESPN matchup projector disparity of 88.2% to 11.8%. We are certainly not favored this weekend.
But Norse fans should understand that this season has been a tremendous success so far. Trevon Faulkner is likely to land on an all-Horizon League team, possibly even first or second. Marques Warrick is very likely to win the Freshman of the Year award. And this young team, the equivalent to a second-semester freshman, is going to finish in the top half of the league, most likely 4th or 5th. These are all successes to build on.
Check out our FULL Wright State preview, in this episode of Matchup Zone:
That’s it for this week, folks! Be sure to share this newsletter and leave a comment if you have something to say.. We love hearing from you guys, too!