The First Round is Over, Our Opponent is Set – Here is NKU's Path to March Madness
Looking for the route NKU has to take to get to hang another banner next year? You're going to want to read this one.
Norse fans, we’re almost through the finish line of the most surreal season of all-time. After the results of last Thursday, there are now only 8 teams left in the Horizon League Tournament,eyeing their chance for the title.
The Norse, being one of the 8 teams, have played 5 of the other teams in the field, accruing a record of 6-4 against those teams. The Norse have not faced Oakland (cancelled series, COVID) or Detroit Mercy, their next opponent. In this special subscribers only newsletter, we’ll preview the NKU v. Detroit Mercy game, the other 3 games this Tuesday, and give our quick thoughts on what NKU’s strengths and weaknesses will be against each remaining team - even if they don’t end up playing them. If you’re not a subscriber and want to read, simply subscribe below and you’ll get the full article in your email. If you are a subscriber and wondering how you can read this — you should have already gotten the article in your email. Check there first and if you still don’t see it, email us at norsereportwebsite@gmail.com!
The Week Ahead:
It’s going to be a busy evening Tuesday, Horizon League fans are going to need to have 4 screens up to watch all the games! Besides the NKU game, the games I am most excited about (in order) are Oakland vs. Youngstown State, Wright State vs. Milwaukee and Cleveland State vs. Purdue Fort Wayne. I’ll preview those games below, in that order.
#5 Detroit Mercy Titans @ #4 NKU Norse
Preview & Prediction
Let’s start here: THIS IS NOT YOUR TYPICAL DETROIT MERCY TITANS TEAM. I know, I’ve already seen a lot of “eh, it’s Detroit Mercy, we should own them.” Or, “hey, if we shut down Antoine Davis, we should be just fiiiine.” Fans, I am here to tell you that these takes could not be more off base this year. But first, here’s how the two teams shape up.
Detroit Mercy Overview
Record:12-9, 10-6 in Horizon (3rd)
Key Wins:@ Cleveland State (89-83), @ Oakland (82-72)
Key Players/Per Game Leaders:
Points: 24.3, Antoine Davis | 15.4, Bul Kuol | 11.4, Noah Waterman
Rebounds: 5.9, Chris Brandon | 5.0, Bul Kuol | 5.0, Marquell Fraser
Assists: 4.8, Antoine Davis | 3.4 Marquell Fraser
Steals: 1.5, Antoine Davis | 1.3, Marquell Fraser | 1.3, Bul Kuol
Blocks: 0.7, Noah Waterman
Turnovers: 3.2, Antoine Davis | 2.4, Bul Kuol
Award winners:
1st Team All-HL - Antoine Davis
6th Man - Matt Johnson
Notable Storylines: The Detroit Mercy Titans enter the Tuesday matchup against the Norse in the midst of an 11-2 stretch in their last 13 games. Their only 2 losses during this time have been to the 1 seed Cleveland State and the 3 seed Oakland, which they also beat once during each of those series. Fans will probably remember that the Titans took a long period of time off due to reported mental illness concerns amongst the team. It seems to have been the right call, as they were 0-4 in conference play at the time and have been on a tear since. Antoine Davis lost what is likely to have been a very close race to Loudon Love for Player of the Year, and it seems he hasn’t forgotten that. He scored 46 of the team’s 83 points in their 1st round matchup against Robert Morris, while still gathering 5 assists.
Team Strengths & Weaknesses: One thing that Detroit Mercy is very good at is getting their shot. They shoot a very strong percentage from the field (46.2%), from (39%), and even from the FT line 80%. Often, they will run 4 or 5-out sets in an effort to stretch the defense, both giving their shooters space to bottom open shots, and also give Antoine Davis the space to operate in 1-on-1 situations.
On the flip side of the coin, they are one of the worst offensive renounding teams in the conference, averaging just 9 per game in conference play. Much of that can be due to play style, sure but other than Chris Brandon, it’s hard to find a player on their roster who one would consider a good rebounder.
They also are one of the worst teams in the country at defending the 3, allowing teams to shoot 37% from that range on the year.
Northern Kentucky Overview
Record: 12-9, 10-6 in Horizon (3rd)
Key Wins:Wright State (81-75)
Key Players/Per Game Leaders:
Points: 16.6, Trevon Faulkner | 15.9, Marques Warrick | 10.3, Bryson Langdon
Rebounds: 9.9, Adrian Nelson | 5.4, Trevon Faulkner
Assists: 3.8, Bryson Langdon | 2.5, Trevon Faulkner
Steals: 1.5, Trevon Faulkner | 1.2, Bryson Langdon
Blocks: 0.6, Adrian Nelson
Turnovers: 2.7, Trevon Faulkner | 2.0, Bryson Langdon
Award winners:
2nd Team All-HL - Trevon Faulkner
3rd Team All-HL - Marques Warrick
FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR - Marques Warrick
Notable Storylines: It’s hard to think of a hotter team in the Horizon League than Detroit Mercy, but if there is one that’s even close, a case could be made for the Northern Kentucky Norse. Since falling to 3-5 after getting swept by an IUPUI team that had never won a game at BB&T, the Norse rallied, winning 8 of their final 10 games of the season, including 6 straight. Their 2-2 finish to the season included an overtime loss at Green Bay and a 2nd game loss by 6 to Wright State after having beaten them by the same mark the night before. The Norse have not lost a home conference tournament game since 2015 when they lost in Regends Hall to Lipscomb State in the A-Sun Tournament.
Team Strengths & Weaknesses: This will not come as a suprise to Norse fans, but they love to shoot the 3. Lately, it seems like the Norse have done a fantastic job of playing inside-out rather than the opposite, though. That is to say, while they are shooting a lot of 3s still (as is their calling), they are shooting higher percentage shots by way of working the ball inside and rotating it back out, catching the defense out of position. The Titans play a lot of zone, so the Norse will need to keep the ball moving and not be afraid to make an extra pass if needed.
NKU is one of the worst 3-point defending teams in the country, which sucks because the Titans fall in the top 20 on the offensive side of this stat category. The night could end in an unsatisfying manner fo the Norse if they fail to get out and defend the 3 well.
Likely outcome/our prediction:
There is no likely outcome on this game in my opinion. I am a lot less bullish on the Norse chances to win this game than many Norse fans are. I see a lot of fans floating the double-digit point win predictions, and that’s just not my thing. I think Antoine Davis is playing motivated basketball. I think he’s got a more talented and skilled group of guys than he’s ever had, and I think he’s looking to prove some coaches wrong in the post-season. If I was the Norse, the emphasis for me would be hitting the offensive glass HARD, and guarding the perimeter at all costs. If Davis scores 50, make sure his teammates only score 10 and your team scores 61. When he plays the way he’s capable of, that’s all you can do. Norse pull it off, 72-65.
#6 Youngstown St Penguins @ #3 Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Game Overview
The Youngstown State Penguins are coming into Detroit off of a decisive 74-58win over the UIC Flames, and though their full body of work doesn’t reflect where many around the league would have had them, the month of February certainly does. They Penguins head into a 3v6 matchup against the Grizzlies sporting a 7-1 record in February, which seems impressive on the surface. Darius Quisenberry is back, the team looks “right” and their coach just got rewarded with an extention. However, when you look a little deeper, their winning streak might be a little tainted. They swept the 12th seed Robert Morris in 2 games that both went to overtime, swept the 10 seeded Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons, beat the 11th seeded UIC Flames in last Thursday’s game, split a series 1-1 against the 9th seeded IUPUI Jaguars, and finally their 7th win was against the non-D1 team, Rochester. So the 7-1 finish might be a little misleading.
Oakland, on the other hand, has been the epitome of the phrase “steady as she goes” the entire season. They’ve beaten Wright State. They’re 3-1 on the year against Detroit Mercy. And, oh yes that’s right, they are also a fairly convincing 2-0 against the Penguins as well. Oakland finished the season at, again, a steady 10-10 in conference, and the Penguins will travel to the Detroit suburbs to play a game on Oakland’s disastrous, shiny court.
How Oakland wins
Oakland can pull this game out pretty easily. When you look at the individual matchups, both teams have their obvious “studs” - Quisenberry, Bohannon, Rathan-Mayes for YSU and Moore, Oladapo and Zion Young for Oakland, but this game will come down to the “others”. Oakland has two Freshman forwards who have played their way on to the “all-freshman” team - both of which are averaging over 8.5 ppg and just under 6.0 rebounds per game on the season. Look out for Micah Parris and Trey Townsend. This game could very well come down to second chance points off of offensive rebounds, and these two can make a real difference on that front.
The BIGGEST X-FACTOR is Rashad Williams, though in my opinion. He’s been dealing with injuries this season to my knowledge, but this is a guy who can score 30 any time that ball is tipped. Rashad had the outside track on a POtY this season, and was a likely candidate for a 1st team spot.
If he returns to form Tuesday night - watch out.
How Youngstown State wins
I hate to make this about the players and not based on strategy - obviously it is, but this is a very different YSU team than the team Oakland saw earlier this year. Darius Quisenberry at least looks like he’s back. A lot of the scoring burden against a good Oakland team will likely fall on his shoulders.
The main thing I think YSU needs to do is keep the game lower scoring. Shoot good shots, work the ball to find those good shots, and shoot over 45% from the floor. When YSU shoots that mark or better, they’ve only lost one game this season. It’s not easy to do, but YSU will want to limit the amount of times the Grizzlies get to get up and go in transition.
Likely outcome/our prediction
I’m not gonna go on some big soliloquy here - I think Oakland wins, and I think they do it decisively. I expect the score to be somewhere around 75-59.
How NKU Matches Up Against Each Team
I think at this point, I feel really confident about a future matchup against Youngstown State. I know they’re hot right now, but we are hotter and we are doing it against some of the better teams in the league. I think if NKU sees YSU in a future game, we take them out fairly easily.
Oakland makes me nervous. Not only are they a wildly talented team, Greg Kampe is a good enough coach to eventually get this thing right. He’s easily the most unlucky coach I’ve ever seen in the short time we’ve been in this league. In addition to that, an actual reason they make me nervous is twofold: they don’t have A LOT of size to throw at a team, but their size comes from multiple bodies. Daniel Oladapo is really no bigger than Adrian Nelson, but he outproduces him. Parrish and Townsend are much bigger and more effective inside than Bohm or Robinson, at this point in all of their careers. NKU would definitely need some strong minutes from Huppman to beat this team.
#8 Milwaukee Panthers @ #2 Wright State Raiders
Game Overview
I’ll be honest - there isn’t a lot to say here. I think Wright State houses the Panthers - but I still really enjoy watching Milwaukee play.
Okay, fine. Look, Wright State is beatable. Cucking season is over, I am not gonna sit here and keep bending the knee to this team. That said, I’m not going to project false hope on anyone, this is the best team in the conference. Put it this way - if these matchups were played in 7 game series’ like the NBA, we aren’t even having a discussion. I do not think anyone can beat them 4 times. However….
How Milwaukee wins
This is not the NBA and these are not 7 game series. This is a one time game, and Wright State has proven that they can be beaten…. 4 times in fact. So let’s take a look at those games and see if there’s a commonality, a way that Wright State can perhaps be exposed.
A common theme in Wright State losses are three fold:
Offensive rebounding. Teams that beat Wright State grab over 10 of these per game.
Turnovers. You not only have to beat them in the turnover battle, you have to really force them into making mistakes and feeling uncomfortable.
Shooting. Teams that beat Wright State all shoot 40% or higher.
If Milwaukee can do those three things, they have a shot (no pun intended).
How Wright State Wins
Basically Wright State can block a Milwaukee win by doing any of the above. I think the best thing that they can do to ensure victory is to turn the ball over less than 12 times Tuesday night. There you go. Short and sweet.
Likely outcome/our prediction
I expect Wright State to secure their spot in Indy very easily. I see them taking Milwaukee to the woodshed, 88-63.
How NKU Matches Up Against Each Team
NKU beat Milwaukee both times they played them this year, in two very different ways. The first time we played them, we shot 18 of 37 from the 3. The next night, we shot poorly from 3 but still gutted out a win. I see no reason why a potential matchup (it would have to be in the championship) would be any different.
NKU also split against Wright State. I’ve been touting NKU’s performances against Wright State two weekends ago as the main indicator to just how good NKU actually is this year. Most will agree that WSU is consistently the best team in the conference - and we played them the best of anyone for 80 minutes this season. I’m not guaranteeing a victory, but I think we could definitely take them.
#10 Purdue FW Mastodons @ #1 Cleveland State Vikings
Game Overview
No disrespect to either of these teams, I am just least interested in this game because I can’t watch all 4 at once. This game has fun aspects about it: Purdue FW was the only team capable of pulling off a win last week on the road, they have one of the most exciting scorers in the conference, and Cleveland State has been fighting this external battle of “are they good enough” all season. It’ll be exciting. Not to mention, these two teams faced off just a couple of weeks ago, splitting the series.
How Purdue Fort Wayne wins
The only team in the conference shooting better than Detroit Mercy this season is Purdue Fort Wayne. They shoot [on average] 40% from 3 point range, good enough for 5th in the country. If PFW can come out poppin treys, it’ll give them a shot (I have to stop with these awful puns) against the Vikings
How Cleveland State Wins
On the flip side of the coin, CSU has one of the best 3-point defenses in the country, and the best in the conference. They’ve been able to hold teams around 30% from 3 consistently. I’d wager that if they can repeat this effort in this game, they’ll win handily.
Likely outcome/our prediction
I do think Cleveland State takes this round, but it’ll be close. I have the final score at 68-65, and Purdue Fort Wayne misses a buzzer beater 3.
How NKU Matches Up Against Each Team
NKU beat Purdue Fort Wayne in both of their matchups this season, but it feels like that was years ago. These two teams are on completely opposite ends of the spectrum right now. Before winning their first round game against Green Bay, Purdue Fort Wayne was backsliding, losing 8 straight. Though they did win at Green Bay, and for NKU to face them again it would be in the championship, I just cannot see the ‘Dons riding it out all the way to March Madness. Even if they make the championship, they will run out of steam against the Norse.
This was the reason I wanted to write this preview article. I am so pleased with the draw that NKU received in the tournament this year. Fans will likely remember that NKU lost to Cleveland State twice this season, including a 14 point loss in game 1. But if you watched those games (and believe me, I did) I was never fully convinced that they were THAT much better than us. Aside from an early run in the 1st game that put CSU up double digits, the next 70 or so minutes of the series was fairly even. I think CSU is a really good team, but if you’re asking me who I’d rather have of the higher seeded teams (Oakland, CSU and Wright State) in the semi-final in Indy, it’s CSU by a mile.
Welp, that does it for Norse Report!
What do you think? You agree with what we had to say? Think we’re way off?
Leave a comment below, share with your friends, do whatever you need to do to make yourself feel better about the inevitable disappointment these award projections were!
Great analysis on tonight's games. I hope that the Norse do a great job of defending the 3 and hit enough of their own to pull this out!
#NorseUp