ONE ROUND DOWN, ONE TO GO

Two wins away. 80 minutes. 40 minutes twice. NKU looks to hang their 5th straight banner, and all it takes is a win against two of these three teams

by Kyle Craven (content from all over)

It all comes down to this. The Norse tip off tonight at 9:30 PM, and in just 24 hours, we will know without a shadow of a doubt if the Norse are destined for March Madness, or a well deserved offseason. Last week, I gave you the article The First Round is Over, Our Opponent is Set – Here is NKU's Path to March Madness, and despite being wrong on some things - I was pretty pleased with my predictions and outlooks. Let’s quickly recap how I did!

How I did last week….

60% (12.5 of 21 possible points)

Purdue Fort Wayne v. Cleveland State

1. My pick: CSU | Score Prediction 68-65 | Margin: 3 pts

   • Pick was correct (+1)

   • Scores: CSU way off (+0), PFW way off (+0)

   • Margin was very close (+1)

2/3

2. CSU’s key to the game:

   • Hold Purdue Fort Wayne to under 30% from 3, win handily.

     • PFW shot 44.4% from 3 (+0)

0/1

Detroit Mercy v. NKU

1. My pick: NKU | Score: 72-65 | Margin: 7 pts

   • Pick was correct (+1)

   • Scores: NKU within 1 possession (+1), Titans within 2 possessions (+0.5)

   • Margin was off. (+0)

2.5/3

2. I said NKU wins if…

   • Slow Detroit Mercy’s 3 point shooting: 39% on the season

     • They shot 41.9% in the game, BUT they were 10/20 at one point, ending the game 13/31… so… half credit? (+0.5)

   • Also be efficient from 3, pick the right spots

     • We are inherently bad at shooting 3s.. we shot 29%. We picked our spots okay… Half credit and that’s generous (+0.5)

   • Crash the offensive glass

     • We beat them 14-3 on the glass, 35-22 in total. We killed them (+1)

2/3

Milwaukee v. Wright State

1. My pick: Wright State | Score: 88-63 | Margin: 25 pts

   • Pick was incorrect (+0)

   • Scores: MKE way off (+0), Wright State within 2 possessions (+0.5)

   • Margin was way off. (+0)

0.5/3

2. I said Milwaukee would win if…

   • Get over 10 O-Boards: Got 9… (+0.5)

   • Win turnover battle: MKE won 20-13 (+1)

   • Shoot 40% or higher from the field: MKE shot 42.7% (+1)

2.5/3

Youngstown State v. Oakland

1. My pick: Oakland | Score: 75-59 |Margin: 16 pts

   • Pick was correct (+1)

   • Scores: YSU way off (+0), Oakland off by 12 (+0)

   • Margin was way off. (+0)

1/3

2. I said Oakland wins if…

   • Micah Parrish and Trey Townsend match their season averages, combined:

     • Parrish and Trey Townsend average about 17 ppg & 11 rpg on the season… they got 20 and 13 combined. (+1)

   • Rashad Williams show up and play well

     • 22 points, 6-13 from the field, 5-10 from 3, 5-5 from the line. (+1)

2/2

I’ll take it! Shall we play the semi-final round?

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Semi-final Preview

I’m going to be honest.. I am really, really sad that I won’t be there. I just couldn’t bring myself to do it this year. We’ve got ya covered though, never fear - and we have some really fun things planned, especially halftime of the first game! The Norse are literally just two days away from possibly getting their fifth straight banner. Let’s take a look at how that happens….

GAME ONE: #1 Cleveland State vs. #8 Milwaukee Panthers

Game Overview

I guess we better start with game 1. Here’s what I’m done doing: calling any game in this league a “meh” game. In round 1, I was least excited about Green Bay and Purdue Fort Wayne, and it was an overtime game with a buzzer beater in regulation. In round 2, I said I was least excited about Cleveland State and Purdue Fort Wayne - that game ended after THREE OVERTIMES and had its own buzzer beater. MKE and Cleveland State played twice already. In game 1, Milwaukee was down 21 points early (23-2) and came storming back, going on a 34-10 run to take a 36-33 lead before finally conceding 53-64. Game 2 saw Milwaukee again fall behind by double digits for most of the game until they finally stormed back, winning by 1 at the end, 81-80. The point is, Milwaukee is never dead. They came back from down 24 and only 6 minutes left against Wright State, a statistical impossibility last week! This game should be exciting.

Likely outcome/our prediction

This game will be super close. Like, don’t count either team out at all. I have Cleveland State riding through to the final, 77-76. (I picked Milwaukee on all recorded shows, but those were more “fun picks” - this is the real one).

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How NKU Matches Up Against Each Team

[Re-posted from last week’s article] NKU beat Milwaukee both times they played them this year, in two very different ways. The first time we played them, we shot 18 of 37 from the 3. The next night, we shot poorly from 3 but still gutted out a win. I see no reason why a potential matchup (it would have to be in the championship) would be any different.

[Re-posted from last week’s article] Fans will likely remember that NKU lost to Cleveland State twice this season, including a 14 point loss in game 1. But if you watched those games (and believe me, I did) I was never fully convinced that they were THAT much better than us. Aside from an early run in the 1st game that put CSU up double digits, the next 70 or so minutes of the series was fairly even. I think CSU is a really good team, but if you’re asking me who I’d rather have of the higher seeded teams (Oakland, CSU and Wright State) in the semi-final in Indy, it’s CSU by a mile.

GAME TWO: #4 NKU Norse vs. #3 Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Game Overview

Why does it always feel like it’s gotta go through Oakland? I know it’s only technically happened once, but OAKLAND has undoubtedly been one of our more challenging opponents since the 2016-17 season. Our all-time record against OU is 6-5, we’re both 2-3 at our home courts, and NKU holds the 1-0 lead in neutral site games. If you’re big into "the universe” and everything evening out, then it’s not looking good for NKU. If you’re not freaked out enough by the similarities, here’s more:

Dan Oladapo and Adrian Nelson are basically the same player. Same size, almost identical “per 100 possession” numbers.

Each team has their “super star” lefty - Oakland with Jalen Moore (1st team), and NKU with Trevon Faulkner (3rd team).

Each team has a dynamic duo of freshmen - Oakland with Trey Townsend and Micah Parrish (both 1st team all-freshman), and NKU with Marques Warrick (HL FotY, 1st team) and David Böhm (no “all” team, but good numbers. Top 7 or 8 freshman in conference).

This game will come down to the margins. Oakland needs to shoot well, and NKU needs to not fall for the zone and shoot less 3s than they want to. Both teams need to win the rebounding battle and NKU needs to have less than 12 turnovers.

Likely outcome/our prediction

My official pick is NKU, but I got nervous on all the shows this week and took Oakland… Don’t hate me. Let it be known that I really do think NKU can and will win today, 79-76.

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Welp, that does it for Norse Report!

What do you think? You agree with what we had to say? Think we’re way off?

Leave a comment below, share with your friends, do whatever you need to do to make yourself feel better about the inevitable disappointment these award projections were!